Wednesday, November 03, 2004

A Lesson In Math

UPDATE: At 1:52am MST, the President's lead in Ohio has grown to 171,533. The grave is getting deeper for the Johns. Later.............

Ok, so Kerry is not throwing in the towel just yet and that's his right but allow me to point out the flaws in his logic.

All the networks and most other news sources including the Secretary of State in Ohio agreed that there are about 150,000 provisional ballots in Ohio that need to be investigated and counted starting Nov. 11th. For those that ride on the short bus, here's a short explanation of a provisional ballot.

Provisional Ballot: This is a ballot that allows a voter who is not on the voter rolls to cast a ballot in the chance that they are an actual registered voter. The most likely reason for a voter to use a provisional ballot is that they have moved and the State did not correct their address, hence them not being listed on the voter roll.

According to the State of Ohio, The President has a lead of 2,710,296 to 2,542,710 for Senator Kerry at 1:24am MST with 96.79% of precincts reporting. That is a margin of 167,586. Now before all you Ohio Democrats start crying about Cuyahoga County and how it's going to pull this out for your guy, 87.26% of that vote has already been counted and we still have these Republican counties (Knox, Hamilton, and Clermont) are not finished reporting either.

Ok, so we have a figure of around 150,000 provisional ballots and knowing that the traditional rate of valid provisional ballot is 7% to 20%, again according to most news sources and the Secretary of State. I will even give you Dems the high side number of 20% and say that there are 30,000 valid provisional ballots. Now follow closely, if all 30,000 ballots are for Kerry, which by the way is statically an impossibility, which would still leave Kerry short by 120,000 votes. Do you see where the math gets fuzzy?

So let’s say that after X amount of days and legal challenges, Kerry is still 120,000 down in Ohio, we still need to consider the absentee ballots. Ohio has a good number of military members overseas, and we all know that the military supports the President by a conservative 3 to 1 margin.

Now that we have covered all that, Senator Kerry needs to go back to being an ineffectual senator and Mr. Edwards, having given up his senate seat, can go back to making money off the sick and injured of North Carolina.

I declare President Bush the winner (of Ohio at least). I believe that one of the following states, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa or hell even Wisconsin will put him over the top. It's fucking late and I am going to bed, see ya all later today.


Shelley said...

In the last presidential election, they counted 90% of the provisional ballots in Ohio, so your 30% might be highly inaccurate.

Yes, I think Bush will win Ohio in the end, but I do think Kerry needs to make sure and not throw in the towel now. Plus, if he gets the race close enough...then Ohio will go into an automatic recount as per their election laws. I am sure that is in Kerry's mind as well.

This once again just reminds me how flawed the electoral college continues to be.

chaoticspring said...

I don't know, I remember doing the absentee voting while my husband was serving in the military and we both voted democrat. Heh, had to throw that in there. :p

But you're right. Bush has probably got Ohio, and has more than likely won the election. Seems to shock the Kerry people, but comes to no surprise to me whatsoever. Still, after the last election, you can't blame neither Kerry nor Bush for sitting tight and waiting for *all* the votes to come in. Everybody learned the old lesson about not counting chickens before they're hatched from the last election.

At least this whole election frenzy will be over soon, and the country can quit fighting over it. All this angry politics is giving me a headache.

The Mad Tech said...

Thanks to you both for your comments.
I too hope we can all move past this election, but I fear that there will always be the fanatics on each end to stir the pot.

The Mad Tech